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《从纽约看中国经济 -中国如何转型为消费增长模式》

“从纽约看中国经济”- 前言

 

2012年圣诞节的时候我在纽约的公寓看着窗外雪花纷纷落下,一个念头突然来到我的脑海,我应该写一本书关于我对中国经济的观察。自2008年以来,我在中国的基金公司工作,工作中化了很多时间研究中国宏观经济,参观工厂,和企业老板讨论,为政府官员咨询。这些第一手经验以及在中国境内广泛的考察,加深了我对中国经济的了解深度和广度,远远超出通过阅读数据图表和研究报告所能得到。

 

中国有句成语: “当局者迷,旁观者清”. 作为一名职业基金经理在全球投资,我有兴访问接触很多有洞察力和影响力的人物,著名经济学家,政府高级官员和国家政策设计者。 同时,我也有作为一旁观者的优势,经常进出中国,能够客观地分析和判断中国的形势。关于中国经济已有成吨的书籍和研究报告,通常国际上的观点经常被国人视为雾里看花;而国内的经济学家则经常在自己的逻辑和角度中打圈,当局者迷,错过了重要的分析框架。

 

在经历过了2000科技股泡沫和2008年金融危机之后,我对资本市场和金融投资有了更深一层的认识。 这些深思在牛市中会被视为矫情和虚伪,但在熊市中却是经验和教训。每天赔钱的日子是很难承受的,但这痛苦让我深入思考世界金融体系和资本市场,这些宝贵的教训对我的投资职业生涯将是持久的。基金经理经历熊市就像船长在暴风雨中航行。 2008年是特殊的年份。尽管世界金融市场几近崩溃,中国在世界舞台上不仅表演了极其壮观的奥运会,而且以雄厚的经济实力很快就成为世界排名第二的经济体。尽管全球经济衰退,在中国几乎感觉不到任何放缓。事实上,财政刺激如此强大,经济复苏如此之快,到2009年底时房价开始不断攀升,大宗商品的需求恢复,劳动力市场趋紧。

 

尽管中国取得了惊人的经济增长,但也付出了高昂的代价,包括但不限于污染,腐败和社会不平等。这些问题变得如此真实,当我呼吸的空气带着微粒及二氧化硫,当我看到农民工和电影明星的生活的反差,当我参观豪华度假村和平民棚屋区。工作把我带到了中国的许多地方,所以我有第一手经验看到穷人和富人,繁荣和绝望,豪华和贫困之间的鲜明对比。 虽然这些问题看起来是社会问题,它们植根于经济结构。通过对这些问题一步一步地剥离和分析,我逐渐认识到社会问题源于经济发展的模式,即出口和投资驱动的经​​济发展之路。毫无疑问,出口和投资驱动了中国经济增长,被世界其他国家和地区所羡慕,但目前的经济模式也创造了社会问题,并正在接近转折点.

 

我的教育背景和工作经验培养了我分析问题和解决问题的能力。国家兴亡,匹夫有责。虽然解决经济增长问题不直接转化为投资回报,投资回报始终源于经济增长。在过去十二个月中,我分析了很多在过去几年中积累的关于中国的数据和事实,用在华尔街学到的分析框架来分析中国当前的实际问题。在本书中我提出了解决中国经济失衡和经济转型的具体方法。提供解决失衡的方案和规划未来经济发展是非常有益的事,假设这些建议能被接受和实施的话。中国面临的最大压力是如何转变为消费驱动的经济。出口和投资的快速增长已经接近尾声,国内消费是唯一能维持经济增长的解决办案。我希望所提出的三项改革可以显着刺激国内消费,减少收入不平等,和优化税收结构。

 

另外这本书可以帮助投资者在转型中寻找新的投资机会,并透过经济周期规划自己的事业发展。我在美国的朋友们可以受益于理性的,冷静的分析,使他们对中国的印象和期望以合适的角度设置在合适的水平。正所谓旁观者清,我希望本书实现了这些目标。

 

写书的过程是孤独和乏味的,很多次都想放弃这一计划。非常感谢中国经济出版社的乔卫兵先生的鼓励和支持,以及其他朋友的热心帮助,使得这本书得以问世。 在此一起表示感谢。


陆旻 (Jeff Lu)  2013年12月  纽约和上海

“China Watch from New York” Afterword  “从纽约看中国经济” – 后记

 

Book is author’s brainchild, and I have a second one.  Writing book is a tortuous process, a trail with regrets and emotional fluctuations.  Every time I read my writing, always feel that I should change the words, sentences, the paragraphs, and structures…almost everything I have written before. Publishing is literally meaningless, because so many things should be changed.

 

In a time with mobile internet, information is distributed instantaneously across the world.  So what is the value of writing a book?  It is true that knowledge is commoditized by internet, and the world is becoming increasingly flat.  While library is build to store and retrieve knowledge, and to testify the progression of humanity, physical library has decreased value and importance because cyber-storage. Today, nearly every piece of knowledge is at the fingertip of every individual with a smart phone.

 

Nevertheless, convenience in retrieving knowledge has not enhanced learning, nor help make judgment.  Judgment, with a flood of complex information, was particularly difficult. However, making judgment is an everyday job in investing global equity markets. Fund managers, who moves billions dollar around, are forced to make judgment with very often imperfect and even conflicting information.

 

To be a top quality investor, to gain knowledge, and to make judgment are equally important.  While knowledge is an important part of the decision-making process, judgment is equally, if not more, important step in making investment decisions.  Therefore, in my two books, the first emphasized independent thinking, and this one focused on objective judgment.

 

Articles collected in this book are not intended to be a textbook, nor a collection of finance analysis.  They reflect my thinking process on key financial markets such as oil, metal, currency, stock, and on macro-economic issues of China.  In the end, we have to make judgment, no matter how reluctant and hesitating, when information is often imperfect and contradictory. 

 

Many people I need to thank for making this book come true, which otherwise would have been abandoned many times. Particularly, I am thankful to Tanya, my then girl friend, who contributed tremendously in editing, prove-reading, modifying and structuring this book.  Her critics and encouragement, as well as her time and effort are priceless. To her contribution and support, I am forever indebted. 

 

When you read my book, it is a dialogue of us without the constraint of distance and time. If my ideas and reasoning resonates with yours, we have a wonderful conversation.  Otherwise, in case nothing hit your mind, the book is a monologue, of myself in a lonely world.  Regardless, it has been a rough and difficult, yet intellectual and fun journey, in writing this book. I welcome your criticism and praise, suggestion and rejection, consensus and disagreement…

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